DMK chief MK Stalin appears to have got carried away by the Congress’s victory in three Assembly elections. At an event in Chennai, he endorsed Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s candidature for prime ministership and asked opposition parties to back his opinion. Stalin said, “We will install a new Prime Minister in Delhi, and I propose the candidature of Rahul Gandhi from Tamil Nadu.”
Unfortunately for him, other regional satraps seemed unimpressed. This despite Stalin’s call to “defeat the fascist” Modi-led Government and “save the nation”. That they are far from ready to declare Rahul Gandhi as the leader on behalf of the opposition parties to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019, became apparent when most of them skipped the swearing-in ceremony at Madhya Pradesh on Monday of the Kamal Nath-led regime.
In any case, even if there had been a galaxy of leaders present for the occasion, it would not have amounted to an endorsement of Rahul Gandhi’s candidature, though it would have been a morale-booster for the Congress and a grand show of optics. We must not forget the Bengaluru show of strength when the HD Kumaraswamy-led Government took charge in Karnataka — nearly every prominent opposition leader was present and showcased by an exultant Congress.
As things stand, it’s three parties from the south which might stamp their approval to the Congress chief’s name — besides the DMK, there is the JD (S) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu is on the back foot after the humiliating loss in Telangana, which he suffered in collaboration with the Congress. He knows that his prospects of leading a grand coalition of regional parties against the BJP have collapsed, and may thus be willing to back his new friend. Kumaraswamy has no option since his survival as Chief Minister depends on the Congress’s support.
Elsewhere, the situation hasn’t improved for Rahul Gandhi, despite the Congress’s wins in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The Left has dismissed Stalin’s statement as the opinion of an individual. Other and more powerful regional parties, such as the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have stuck to their earlier stand that the choice of a prime ministerial candidate would be decided after the 2019 Lok Sabha election results are known.
There are three reasons for their reservation. First, powerful regional leaders fancy their own chances in the case of a hung House. Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee believe they will be able to get enough of their representatives in the Lok Sabha to determine the prime ministerial choice. Banerjee especially is upbeat because she doesn’t have to share seats in West Bengal with anybody, and thus stands the better chance of the two to have the bigger numbers. Mayawati could well end up having an arrangement with the SP, which would leave her with fewer seats to contest.
The second reason is that these parties are more or less certain that the Congress would not be able to win more than 120 seats (in the best case scenario) nationwide, and that regional parties taken together would have the larger number and thus better leverage. If the Congress fails to garner a respectable number, then it’s possible that even the present endorsers of Rahul Gandhi would shift their support to the non-BJP/non-Congress camp.
The third reason is one that gives them the greatest nightmare. They believe that endorsing Rahul Gandhi’s candidature at this stage would pit him directly against Prime Minister Modi in a sort of presidential contest — something that the BJP looks forward to. The regional parties understand that this would be an unequal combat; despite his recent success, the Congress chief is no match for Modi in terms of people connect, popularity ratings or oratorial skills. In a face-off of this kind, there are other issues that will come into play more acutely. The issue of corruption in high places, for instance. Augusta helicopter deal accused Christian Michel has been brought back to India and he could say things that would be deeply hurtful to the Congress’s image. A Red Corner notice against Mehul Choksi has been issued by Interpol on the CBI’s request, and once he is brought back he too can say things that would be politically damaging to the Congress. Then there is Vijay Mallya, who has lost his case in a UK court which ordered his extradition to India, and has gone in for an appeal to a higher judiciary. All of these personalities and their questionable dealings are connected to the Congress. Opposition parties would not want to harm their image by formally associating with a party that has such baggage — having sundry understandings is another thing.
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