There are different ways to interpret the results of the urban local body (ULB) elections in Karnataka, but certain aspects are beyond doubt. The first is that the Janata Dal (Secular), to which the State’s Chief Minister belongs, is a clear loser. The second is that the Congress, which is part of the coalition regime there, has not secured a thumping mandate. And the third is that the Bharatiya Janata Party, which finished second to the Congress, needs more firepower to emerge a winner in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.
The outcome is a warning dong for the JD (S). The party finished a distant third with 375 seats out of 2,662. Party leaders have been putting up a brave front, claiming that they had managed to ensure the defeat of the BJP, which is their ‘main’ rival in the State. But they cannot escape from the fact that, despite being in power, they had to settle for bronze. The winds are not blowing their way. The JD (S) fared below expectations in its strongholds of Mysore and Tumkur, where it now has to forge an understanding with the Congress to rule the corporations. Besides, the party won only 30 out of the 135 wards in the three city corporations which went to polls.
It is obvious that the party’s decision to partner the Congress to form a Government in the State some months ago, has not fetched any real return to the JD (S). This is partly because the people of Karnataka do not see the alliance as a credible factor, given that the Congress and the JD (S) have been squabbling ever since they aligned to keep the BJP, which had emerged as the single largest party in the State election, out of power. It is not hidden that there is simply no chemistry between Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy and senior State Congress leaders including former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.
It is possible that the relationship may deteriorate further, with the Congress getting a sizeably larger number of seats in the ULB poll and flexing its muscle in the coming months. And it’s quite probable that the Congress-JD (S) may not exist during the Lok Sabha election — and if it does, it will be as or even more fractious than now. The ULB outcome could well trigger voices within the JD (S) in favour of a revisit of the alliance formula.
The Congress’s emergence as the single largest party, with 982 seats, is far from being emphatic because the party could not dent the BJP’s stronghold of coastal Karnataka or even the JD (S) fort in Old Mysore, Mandya and Hassan. In effect, therefore, the Congress remained strong in regions such as the Karnataka-Hyderabad and central Karnataka. But the party failed to wipe out the BJP, which it was hoping to. Moreover, the Congress actually won fewer number of seats as compared to 2013; then, it had been victorious in 1,960 seats.
The silver lining for the Congress is that it can now even further arm-twist the JD (S), driven by the prime spot that the ULB poll results have thrown up for the former. Already, some Congressmen are wondering in private whether there is anything substantial to be gained from the continuing alliance, when the Chief Minister at the drop of a hat, behaves like a victim and martyr and sheds tears in public over the “poison” of alliance he has consumed for the people’s sake. The Congress leader who would be the most pleased by the outcome is Siddaramaiah. Since Kumaraswamy became the Chief Minister following the Congress high command’s decision to grant him the post though the Congress had the larger number of seats in the Assembly, Siddaramaiah has been continuously taking potshots at the Kumaraswamy regime in oblique ways. In a recent meeting of his supporters, Siddaramaiah said that politics was like flowing water and that he would be back at the helm because the people of the State loved him.
For the record, both the Congress and the JD (S) are claiming victory jointly, on the ground they were partners in the Government. They see in the results, a great potential which exists to decimate the BJP in the 2019 election, if they fight the party jointly. But the ULB poll was not contested by them as an alliance, and so the sleight of hand in combining their numbers now to project a sweeping win against the BJP, lacks credibility.
The BJP, on its part, can take heart from its improved performance in comparison to 2013 — though the jump, at 929 seats, is not enormous. Also, it is rare for an opposition party in Karnataka to outperform the ruling dispensation in ULB elections. The BJP not only retained its hold in coastal Karnataka but also dented the JD (S) fort in Hassan, long considered the stronghold of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and his family. It also did fairly well in city municipal councils, gaining a clear majority in 10 out of the 29 councils. That said, the BJP has a tough road ahead, if the ULB results are any indication, to outperform the Congress in the coming Lok Sabha poll.
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